The campaign behind an initiative to legalize marijuana in Arizona has their work cut out for them in the coming weeks, as a new poll shows that just a slim majority of voters support the ballot measure.
According to the poll, which was conducted by Monmouth University, 51 percent of respondents said they back the proposal, while 41 percent are against it. Six percent are undecided, while another three percent of voters said they would skip the cannabis measure on the ballot.
The firm ran multiple scenarios, and found that support dips to 49 percent and opposition rises to 43 percent in a high turnout model, while a low turnout situation puts the measure at 47 percent for and 47 percent against.
With weeks before the election, activists will have to do what they can to make their margin of support more comfortable. That said, a separate survey that a different polling company released in July found that significantly more Arizonans support the policy change, with 62 percent saying the state should legalize cannabis.
For this latest poll, Democrats were the most likely to back the initiative at 67 percent. Fifty-nine percent of independents and 32 percent of Republicans said they would vote for the measure.
Sixty percent of voters aged 18 to 49 said they will vote for the legalization measure, and a majority of to-64 year-olds did as well. Voters over 65 oppose it by a margin of 34 percent to 59 percent.
Interestingly, households with military service members or veterans were especially supportive of the proposal, with 57 percent of respondents in that group saying they favor legalization, with only 47 percent of non-military or vet households being on board.
The poll also showed Democratic vice presidential nominee Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump in the state, 48 percent to 44 percent.
Last month, Trump voiced concern that putting marijuana measures on state ballots boosts Democratic turnout and makes Republicans lose elections.
The survey involved interviews with 420 Arizona registered voters from September 11-15 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage points.
Activists turned in about 420,000 raw signatures for the cannabis legalization initiative in July, and it officially qualified last month.
Under the measure, adults could possess up to an ounce of marijuana at a time and cultivate up to six plants for personal use.
The initiative also contains several restorative justice provisions such as allowing individuals with prior marijuana convictions to petition the courts for expungements and establishing a social equity ownership program
Cannabis sales would be taxed at 16 percent. Tax revenue would cover implementation costs and then would be divided among funds for community colleges, infrastructure, a justice reinvestment and public services such as police and firefighters.
The Department of Health Services would be responsible for regulating the program and issuing cannabis business licenses. It would also be tasked with deciding on whether to expand the program to allow for delivery services.
Arizona voters narrowly rejected an earlier marijuana legalization initiative in 2016.
Photo courtesy of Chris Wallis // Side Pocket Images.